The Evolution of Global Fragmentation

A 200-Year Journey of Self-Interest and Future Projections

For over two centuries, the world has experienced cycles of global cooperation and fragmentation. From the colonial era to the modern age of populism and deglobalization, nations have swung between collaboration and competition, often driven by self-serving interests. Today, we face a world increasingly defined by nationalism, resource conflicts, and climate-induced crises. But where is this trend headed, and how will the next 50-100 years shape the global landscape?

Below is a two-part analysis: the first graph outlines the past 200 years, showing how global self-interest and fragmentation have risen. The second graph offers future projections based on the APEX model (explained further below), predicting the next 75 years and the key events likely to shape global dynamics. This analysis uses historical data and the forecasting system that predicts global trends based on real-time data, examining factors like nationalism, climate change, and technological disruptions. APEX continuously updates its predictions based on new data and emerging trends.

The Past: 1800-2024

1. Early Growth of Nationalism and Fragmentation (1800-1914)
In the early 19th century, colonialism and the industrial revolution set the stage for growing global tensions. Colonial ambitions and the Industrial Revolution led nations to compete fiercely for resources, driving rising nationalism and military buildups across Europe.

• Key drivers: Colonial ambitions, industrialization, and rising nationalism.
• Trend: Slow increase in self-interest and fragmentation as national ambitions took precedence over global cooperation.

2. World Wars and Economic Collapse (1914-1945)
The early 20th century saw two world wars and a global depression, rapidly escalating global fragmentation. With nationalism and militarism at their peak, countries turned inward, focused on self-preservation, and engaged in devastating conflicts.

• Key drivers: Militarism, economic collapse, authoritarian ideologies, and wars.
• Trend: Sharp rise in global self-interest, leading to unprecedented conflict and instability.

3. Post-War Rebuilding and Cold War Tensions (1945-1990)
After WWII, the creation of institutions like the United Nations and the World Bank helped foster some global cooperation. However, the Cold War kept the world divided ideologically. Despite tensions, global fragmentation increased more moderately, tempered by diplomacy and arms control agreements.

• Key drivers: Ideological battles (capitalism vs. communism) and the rise of global institutions.
• Trend: Moderate increase in self-interest, balanced by efforts to prevent global conflict.

4. Post-Cold War Globalization (1990-2010)
The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 brought a brief period of optimism. Globalization expanded rapidly, driven by economic interdependence and the rise of free trade agreements. However, the seeds of inequality and discontent were also sown, leading to future instability.

• Key drivers: Globalization, market liberalization, and economic interdependence.
• Trend: Temporary regression in global self-interest, as nations embraced cooperation.

5. The Recent Rise of Populism and Nationalism (2010-2024)
The optimism of globalization was short-lived. The rise of populism, nationalism, and protectionism has fractured the global order. Major events like Brexit, the election of Donald Trump, and the COVID-19 pandemic exposed the fragility of global cooperation.

• Key drivers: Populism, trade wars, global health crises, and authoritarianism.
• Trend: Sharp rise in fragmentation as nations turned inward.
  
  

 

The Future: APEX Predictions for 2025-2100

What is APEX?

APEX, or Agnostic Prediction and Escalation eXpert, is a dynamic forecasting model designed to assess global crisesby analyzing real-time data across various dimensions—geopolitical, economic, social, and environmental. APEX recalibrates its predictions continuously, adjusting its focus based on emerging trends and feedback loops from ongoing developments. By looking at historical data and current indicators, APEX identifies tipping points where crises are likely to escalate and projects long-term trends in global behavior.

In this case, APEX uses past data on nationalism, resource scarcity, climate change, and technological disruptions to project the likely future trajectory of global fragmentation and self-interest over the next 75 years.

Here’s a breakdown of key events predicted by APEX:

1. Post-Pandemic Recovery and Nationalism (2025-2035)

• 2025: Nations continue to recover from the pandemic, but rising nationalism and economic protectionismintensify, leading to fractured global cooperation.
• 2030: For example, the decoupling of digital technologies between China and the U.S., with China’s Great Firewall and Europe’s GDPR, illustrates how nations are building separate digital ecosystems. This separation may drive further political divisions.
• 2035: Climate-induced migration begins, as resource scarcity in vulnerable regions pushes populations to seek refuge in more stable areas.

2. Resource Conflicts and Climate Migration (2040-2055)

• 2040: By 2040, nations will increasingly compete for vital resources such as water and clean energy, especially as climate change makes these resources scarcer. This will likely lead to resource-driven conflicts in vulnerable regions.
• 2050: Authoritarian governments begin using AI to strengthen their control, leading to more power being concentrated in fewer hands. A divide grows between democratic and tech-authoritarian nations.

3. Peak Authoritarianism and Global Power Shifts (2060-2075)

• 2070: Tech-authoritarian regimes reach their peak, leveraging advanced AI to control populations. Global systems are highly fragmented, with few multilateral agreements left in place.
• 2075: Severe climate impacts cause mass migration and geopolitical instability. Northern regions (e.g., Canada, Russia) become new centers of economic power as climate refugees from the south flood into these areas.

4. Collapse of Traditional Governance (2080-2100)

• 2090: The world witnesses a dramatic shift in global power as some traditional state systems collapse, replaced by tech-controlled governance. New global alliances form around technological and resource-based hubs.
• 2100: Traditional state governance collapses in many regions, with AI-driven systems dominating. Global fragmentation reaches its highest point, with new power structures focused on resource management and technological control.

 

Conclusion: What’s at Stake for Humanity?

In summary, global fragmentation is set to increase due to nationalism, resource conflicts, and technological decoupling. To address these challenges, nations should prioritize global cooperation, particularly in climate action and resource management. Policymakers must focus on building frameworks that promote collaboration over competition, ensuring a more stable future. As populism, climate crises, and technological disruption continue to reshape global dynamics, the question remains: How will this serve the long-term survival of humanity?

APEX's predictions highlight the urgent need for global cooperation. Without a concerted effort to address climate change, resource scarcity, and rising authoritarianism, the world may face unprecedented levels of instability and conflict. The projected future—dominated by resource wars, tech-driven authoritarian regimes, and the collapse of traditional governance—presents a dire scenario for global peace and sustainability.

The challenge for humanity is not just to survive the crises that are on the horizon but to actively reverse this trend of fragmentation before it's too late. How we respond to these challenges in the coming decades will determine whether we can build a future based on cooperation, innovation, and shared survival, or if we will continue down a path of division and decline. The choice is ours.

Summary for a Layperson:

For over 200 years, the world has gone through cycles of cooperation and division. Sometimes countries work together to solve global problems, and at other times, they compete for power, resources, or control. Today, we see more division because of issues like nationalism (countries focusing only on their own interests), resource conflicts, and climate change. Looking ahead, these divisions are expected to get worse. A prediction model called APEX suggests that by 2100, the world could face more crises caused by competition over resources, growing inequality, and the rise of powerful authoritarian governments that use technology to control people. The article emphasizes the need for countries to cooperate more, especially in managing climate change and resources, to avoid greater instability and conflict in the future.

Summary for a Five-Year-Old:

A long time ago, countries used to work together, but sometimes they also fought to get more land and things like water and energy. Now, countries are starting to fight again because everyone wants to protect their own stuff. In the future, people might have to move to different places because of the weather getting worse, and countries might argue even more. But if countries work together and share, we can avoid lots of problems.

 

Glossary:

Agnostic Prediction and Escalation eXpert (APEX):

A dynamic forecasting model used to analyze global crises by examining real-time data across geopolitical, economic, social, and environmental dimensions. APEX recalibrates its predictions continuously based on emerging trends and feedback loops, projecting long-term trends in global behavior.

Authoritarianism:

A political system in which a single leader or a small group of individuals holds concentrated power, often disregarding democratic principles and individual freedoms. In the context of the article, authoritarianism is linked to the rise of tech-driven regimes and the use of AI to consolidate control.

Brexit:

The United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union following a 2016 referendum. Brexit is highlighted as a key event contributing to the rise of populism and fragmentation within the global order.

Climate-Induced Migration:

The movement of people caused by environmental factors, such as extreme weather events, rising sea levels, or resource scarcity due to climate change. In the article, it is projected that by 2035, large populations will be displaced due to climate-related crises, leading to geopolitical instability.

Colonialism:

A system in which one country establishes control over foreign territories, often exploiting resources and imposing its own governance. Colonialism, particularly in the 19th century, is cited as a driver of global fragmentation as nations competed for dominance and resources.

Decoupling (Digital):

The process by which nations or regions separate their digital infrastructures, governance, and regulations from one another. The article references the growing digital divide between the U.S. and China, with examples like China’s Great Firewall and Europe’s GDPR, as part of broader technological fragmentation.

Economic Protectionism:

Policies implemented by a government to restrict international trade in order to protect domestic industries from foreign competition. The rise of protectionism is discussed as a contributor to the post-pandemic fragmentation of global cooperation, exacerbating nationalistic trends.

Free Trade Agreements:

International agreements that reduce barriers to trade, such as tariffs and import quotas, to encourage economic cooperation between countries. The article identifies free trade agreements as a key driver of globalization during the 1990-2010 period.

Global Cooperation:

The collaboration of countries to address common challenges or achieve shared goals, typically through international organizations and agreements. The article contrasts periods of high global cooperation, such as after World War II, with eras of increasing fragmentation.

Globalization:

The process of increasing economic, political, and cultural interdependence between countries, often driven by trade, technology, and migration. The article highlights globalization's role in reducing global self-interest during the post-Cold War period but also notes the backlash that followed in the form of populism and nationalism.

Great Firewall:

A term used to describe China’s internet censorship and surveillance system, which restricts access to foreign websites and controls the flow of information online. It is used in the article to illustrate how nations are building separate digital ecosystems, contributing to technological decoupling.

Militarism:

The belief or desire of a government or people that a country should maintain a strong military capability and be prepared to use it aggressively to defend or promote national interests. In the article, militarism is a key driver of global fragmentation during the two World Wars.

Nationalism:

A political ideology centered around promoting the interests of a particular nation, often at the expense of global cooperation. Nationalism is a recurring theme in the article, contributing to both historical and future periods of global fragmentation.

Populism:

A political approach that seeks to appeal to ordinary people by contrasting their interests with those of the elite. The rise of populist movements, particularly in the 2010-2024 period (e.g., Brexit, Trump), is identified as a catalyst for growing fragmentation and inward-focused governance.

Resource-Driven Conflicts:

Conflicts arising from the competition over natural resources such as water, energy, or minerals. The article projects that by 2040, resource scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, will lead to conflicts, particularly over clean energy sources.

Technological Fragmentation:

The growing separation of technological systems and standards between nations or regions. The article discusses the impact of technological fragmentation, particularly in the digital space, as nations like China and the U.S. develop independent infrastructures, contributing to global divisions.

Trade Wars:

Economic conflicts in which countries impose tariffs or other trade barriers against each other to protect domestic industries or retaliate against unfair trade practices. Trade wars are cited as a key driver of global fragmentation, particularly in the rise of protectionism following the global pandemic.

United Nations (UN):

An international organization founded in 1945 to promote peace, security, and cooperation among nations. The UN is referenced in the article as a key institution that facilitated global cooperation after World War II, mitigating some of the fragmentation of the Cold War era.

References:

1. Anderson, B. (1991). Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of Nationalism. Verso Books.
   Anderson’s concept of “imagined communities” underpins much of the discussion in the article related to nationalism and its role in the fragmentation of global cooperation, particularly in the 19th and 20th centuries.
2. Friedman, T. L. (2005). The World is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
   Friedman’s exploration of globalization and the flattening of the world economy provides context for the discussion on the post-Cold War era of globalization and the temporary regression in global self-interest.
3. Hobsbawm, E. J. (1994). Age of Extremes: The Short Twentieth Century, 1914-1991. Michael Joseph.
   This text outlines the political and economic turbulence of the 20th century, supporting the historical discussion of global fragmentation during the World Wars and the Cold War.
4. Georgieva, K. (2023). The High Cost of Global Economic Fragmentation. IMF Blog. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/28/the-high-cost-of-global-economic-fragmentation
   This contemporary analysis of geopolitical fragmentation aligns with the article’s future predictions regarding economic fragmentation, as countries decouple their economies due to protectionist and nationalistic policies.
5. World Economic Forum. (2022). Future of Globalization: Four Scenarios for the Global Economy. Retrieved from https://www.weforum.org
   This report provides four potential scenarios for the future of globalization, which complements the APEX model’s predictions about digital decoupling, technological fragmentation, and resource-driven conflicts.
6. Diamond, J. (2005). Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. Viking Penguin.
   Diamond’s exploration of societal collapse due to environmental and resource management failures offers valuable insights into the article’s projections about resource-driven conflicts and climate-induced migration in the 21st century.
7. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2001). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. W. W. Norton & Company.
   Mearsheimer’s theory of offensive realism explains the competitive nature of international politics, providing theoretical backing for the article’s discussion on rising nationalism and resource competition as drivers of global fragmentation.
8. OECD. (2017). Bridging the Digital Divide: Policies for Digital Inclusion. OECD Publishing.
   This publication provides the backdrop for the technological fragmentation discussed in the article, particularly the role of digital sovereignty and the decoupling of technological infrastructures.
9. IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press.
   This report informs the article’s projections about climate-induced crises and migration, using scientific evidence to support the argument about resource scarcity and its impact on global stability.
10. Fukuyama, F. (1992). The End of History and the Last Man. Free Press.
    Fukuyama’s exploration of liberal democracy after the Cold War provides a theoretical framework for the temporary decline in global self-interest after 1991, as highlighted in the article’s section on Post-Cold War Globalization.
11. Rotberg, R. I. (2004). When States Fail: Causes and Consequences. Princeton University Press.
    This text supports the article’s future projections regarding the collapse of traditional state governance and the rise of tech-driven authoritarian regimes in the late 21st century.
12. Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2012). Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty.Crown Business.
    This book explains why some nations succeed while others fail, providing context for the article’s discussion on global power shifts, resource management, and technological control as factors in future geopolitical dynamics.
13. IMF. (2020). The Great Lockdown: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Economy. IMF Publications.
    This publication provides data and analysis on the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, reinforcing the article’s discussion of how the pandemic has accelerated global fragmentation.
14. Sachs, J. (2008). Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet. Penguin Press.
    Sachs’s exploration of sustainable economic policies offers a counterpoint to the article’s discussion of global resource conflicts, arguing for cooperation in managing global commons.